Uri Avnery's Column 

Ahead of the Collision


Like two trains speeding towards each other on the same track, the governments of Bush and Sharon are racing towards an unavoidable collision.

The earthquake of September 11 th changed the Middle East completely. If Ariel Sharon thought that, at last, the basis for full cooperation in the War Against Terror between Washington and Jerusalem, a Bush(a)ron super-government, against Bin Laden and Arafat, had been created, he was reading the wrong map. Quite the opposite happened.

Up until the disaster occurred the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was far from the center of Washington’s attention, just another annoying conflict in some remote corner of the world. However, as soon as the Twin Towers collapsed the Middle East arrived in Washington. Until then the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was a matter of domestic policy: relations with the Jewish voters and with their representatives in Congress and in the media. Now the conflict has become the focus of national American interest.

Suddenly the American government discovered that tremendous rage and hatred has built up in the Arab and Muslim world against the United States primarily for its absolute support of Israel, the oppressor of their Palestinian brothers. The masses were enraged by the daily pictures of armed occupying soldiers in their bullet-proof vests killing Palestinians, shooting at children, uprooting trees, destroying homes, expropriating land, building settlements, assassinating leaders, imposing closures and sieges, humiliating the elderly and women – all of this with American weapons, American money and American political support. The feelings of the masses were like a river obstructed by a dam - they rose quietly and slowly until they reached critical mass and split the dam open.

Washington has realized that Bin Laden exploited this massive rage and adopted the Palestinian issue to secure the support of the Arab and Muslim masses for his objectives. To fight Bin Laden the Americans must subdue the waves of rage and appease the people. To do so they must find a solution that is acceptable to the Palestinians and to the rest of the Arab and Muslim nations.

The Arab leaders alerted Washington. The enraged masses in their countries identify with Bin Laden. They are endangering all Pro-American kings and presidents. To save them, a solution must be found for the Palestinian problem.

The message was understood in Washington. Bush began to speak of a Palestinian State. Collin Powell speaks of a solution to the conflict. Outdoing them all, the main spokesman of the War Against Terror, the British Tony Blair with Arafat at his side, made a very clear Pro-Palestinian statement. Arafat, with his usual swiftness, immediately understood the historical significance of the moment and was the first to jump on the American bandwagon. Sharon meanwhile compared Bush to Chamberlain

The Sharon-Peres government view this as a disaster. Any American solution that can be conceived in these circumstances will have to resemble the guidelines formulated by Clinton at the end of his term in office: a Palestinian State with its capital in East Jerusalem, the Temple Mount for the Palestinians and the Western Wall for the Israelis, a return to the borders of the Green Line with minimal territorial exchange, evacuation of all the settlements (except the few that will be included in the territorial exchange, if so agreed). Every detail in this plan is a direct stab in the heart of Sharon.

Sharon is still hopeful that, with the help of Congress and the American Jewish establishment, he will be able to thwart this move. A short visit to America has convinced me, however, that he is holding on to an obsolete map. Congress has lost much of its power and cannot defy the President who is the supreme commander of the War. The Jews of America will be reluctant to take a stance that will portray them as more loyal to Israel than to their government. The voices critical of Sharon and his policies are getting louder in the Jewish community. A divergence is developing between officials who serve any Israeli government and Jewish leaders with independent opinions.

This is bad for Sharon but good for Israel. The armed conflict with the Palestinians is gaining momentum. The assassination of leaders and occupation of land are elements of the pointless escalation. Outside intervention is crucial to allow the two sides to stop shooting and to start seriously negotiating a solution. An opportunity has been created and all peace seekers, Israelis and Palestinian, Jews and Arabs all over the world, must make certain that it is not missed.