If one wants to understand why the Hamas is trying at this precise point in time to start again a suicide-bomber campaign against Israel, one should remember the story about the coachman and his horse.

The coachman was troubled by the fact that his horse ate up a great part of his income. He decided to get the horse used to eat less, but to do it cautiously. Every day he reduced the horse's ration by one straw. The experiment would undoubtedly have been crowned with success, if the horse had not, unfortunately, broken down and died just on the day his ration reached the last straw.

Ehud Barak is undertaking a similar experiment. Every day he "lowers the expectations" (his coinage) of the Palestinians. He should have long ago turned over 6.1% of the West Bank territory. Without asking them, the way one throws a bone to a dog, he decided to give them some remote, worthless pieces of land. He does not even want to talk about the "third deployment", which, as agreed, should have included all the West Bank, except "specified military locations". At most, he is ready to give up one or two percent.*

• By the way, some commentators, even Palestinians, believe that the agreement also excludes Israeli settlements. The agreement does not say so.

And in the meantime, he reduces the territory every day. All over the West Bank land is being confiscated, but slowly, a dunam here, a dunam there. "Settlement blocs", designed for annexation, expand slowly and steadily. Palestinians are evicted, here from some caves and houses, there from some olive groves and fields.

Jewish Jerusalem expands, Arab Jerusalem shrinks. On Har Homa (Jebl Abu-Ghneim) a 48-floors high skyscraper is about to be erected, overlooking the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem and the Christian holy places in Bethlehem. The hope of the Palestinians to get at least Abu-Dis, as proposed by Yossi Beilin, has been dashed. Beilin is now one of the chief apologists of Barak.

Until now, the experiment is succeeding. It seems that the Palestinians are ready to absorb everything. They are busy quarreling among themselves, while the land is being drawn from under their feet. But the horse of Palestinian patience is dying.

In the Israeli media, somber-faced "experts" wonder whether Arafat has given the green light to the suicide-bombers caught in Taibe village. But the green light is everywhere. From the main street of Ramallah to the remotest West Bank village, Palestinians are telling each other: "This can't go on. Arafat tries to convince the Israelis peacefully, but he is not getting anywhere. The Hizbullah are proving tha Israel understands only the language of violence. Maybe we should give a chance to the crazies of Hamas."

When such a mood gets around, attacks follow nearly automatically. Hamas is a political movement, listening intently to the public heartbeat. It was not only Asrafat's security organizations that have prevented attacks until now, but also the fact that most of the Palestinians want calm, open borders and work in Israel. When more and more Palestinians become convinced that the calm leads only to disaster, it will end.

The chiefs of Israeli army intelligence are publicly warning that without a resumption of the negotiations, renewed suicide attacks must be expected. Some foresee a new, expanded Intifada. But generals always think about the last war, not about the next one. Neither terror attacks nor Intifada will hold the stage in the next round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Let's look at another scenario: Some sunny morning in the summer of 2000 the radio will announce that the Palestinian armed forces have occupied Abu-Dis and fortified it. The HQ will be located in the new "parliament" building, overlooking the Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount) and the Christians holy places in Bethlehem.

What next? The IDF will quickly surround the small town. TV teams from all over the world will rush to the scene and broadcast the blockade live, with the golden Dome of the Rock featuring in every picture. Sooner or later a shot will ring out, and the Battle of Abu-Dis will begin.

Of course, the Palestinians cannot win the battle militarily, but they will win it politically and morally. Even if they will be killed to the last man -- and perhaps especially so -- the battle will electrify the world and Palestinian history will gain its Stalingrad.

That was the method of Garibaldi, the Italian freedom-fighter, who was so much admired by the Zionist extremists, Vladimir (Ze'ev) Jabotinsky and Menachem Begin. If they were alive, they would have told Barak: Beware!

Palestinian patience is running out. The horse is nearing the last straw.