A man wrote his last will and testament. So and so much to his wife. So and so much to each of his children. So and so much to relatives and friends. The final paragraph stated, "In the event of my death, this testament is null and void."

This is essentially what any agreement by Netanyahu is going to be. Its final clause should be as follows: "This agreement is null and void upon Netanyahu's return home."

Obviously it will not be formulated in this clumsy manner. Instead, it will employ the following tactics: Compliance with each of Netanyahu's commitments will be contingent upon a grab-bag of Palestinian guarantees. The abolition (for the umpteenth time) of the clauses of the Palestinian charter by an institution no longer in existence. The stipulation that a new manifesto drafted by Ariel Sharon be adopted by the Palestinians. A drastic reduction in the size of the Palestinian police force, in conjunction with its increased level of fighting the "terror infrastructure." A commitment by Arafat to never declare Palestinian statehood except with an authorization from the settlers in Judea and Samaria. And so on and so forth, limited only by the creative imagination of a Jewish lawyer.

Had Netanyahu jotted down some notes en route to the U.S., they would have looked something like this:

• If there is a way out -- do not sign any agreement.
• If there is no way out -- sign an agreement which will be easy to violate.
• If there is a way out -- do not comply with a single clause of the agreement, and make sure to do so in a manner which would put the entire blame on Arafat.
• If there is no way out -- comply with one or two clauses and then announce that all remaining clauses have to be suspended due to Arafat's violations.
• In the process, open negotiations on the final status, which will drag on for twenty years.
• In the meantime, work at a frenetic pace to enlarge settlements, confiscate land from Palestinians, build by-pass roads, and demolish Arab homes, in order to cleanse most of Judea and Samaria of its Arab population.

Such a plan requires extreme tactical flexibility while holding on to the main objective. Ben-Tzion Netanyahu, the Prime Minister's father, has recently defined this main objective as follows: To break the Oslo Accords without quarreling with the Americans. And this is precisely how Netanyahu Jr. has acted since coming to power.

The necessary tactical flexibility poses a more difficult problem. Netanyahu is entirely dependent on the hard-core messianic extremist settler camp. This element does not care for tricks or tactics. Netanyahu's slightest tactical maneuver can set them off. There is no telling what they may do as a result. Overthrow the government, or perhaps send out one of Yigal Amir's clones who are just waiting in the wings.

This is why Netanyahu gave Ariel Sharon a senior position in his cabinet. His task is to buy Netanyahu some room to maneuver. Sharon is to explain matters to the settlers: "Ignore it all," he will tell them, "nothing will be carried out anyway." (Ariel Sharon, once referred to by David Ben-Gurion as a consummate liar, is a most trustworthy person in comparison with Binyamin Netanyahu.)

The Joker here (to use card-game terminology) is President Clinton. Does he have the capability to present Netanyahu with a situation of "no choice" which would force him to comply as well as to sign? (In other words: Is Monica Lewinsky, the kosher Jewess, capable of preventing Cigar-man from forcing his will on Netanyahu, himself the subject of "the hot cassette"?)

A weak Clinton needs a quick agreement at all costs, to prove his viability as president. This is why he will give in to Netanyahu while applying great pressure on Arafat. But a strong Clinton could actually do the reverse: Put the screws to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu's strategy hinges on his alliance with Clinton's enemies, the Republicans who control Congress, many of whom are beholden to the Rightist Jewish lobby. However, at this time, it appears as if Clinton is actually getting stronger. The odds for the President's supporters in the upcoming congressional elections in three weeks seem to be getting better. Monica and the pornography-promoting Congress seem to have turned off the American public. Maybe this will empower Clinton to exert some moderate physical pressure on Netanyahu. Maybe.

If Clinton's people win the elections, if his standing continues to become stronger, and if he decides to be viewed by history as something other than a total failure, then Israeli-Palestinian peace has a chance to move one step forward. If, if, if. And if not -- then the above final clause of "Netanyahu's last will and testament" will go into effect.