Two disasters befell the Labor party two years ago: 1) It lost the elections. 2) It lost by a minuscule margin. Of those two disasters, the latter is the bigger one.

A big defeat can carry within it a great blessing. Military history abounds in such examples. Ehud Barak, who enjoys studying the history of wars, could undoubtedly quote a number of such examples. For instance, Prussia crumbled in humiliating fashion in the face of Napoleon's army in 1806. Prussia took stock and carried out sweeping reforms in the military and the state. As a result, it transformed itself into a world power. Another example: After its defeat in World War I in 1918, Germany built a small but efficient army, adopting the newest tactics, creating the mighty instrument which served Hitler's blitzkrieg, while the "victorious" armies of Britain and France atrophied.

In the Israeli elections for Prime Minister, Netanyahu defeated Peres by a margin of 29,457 votes. Since that time, the party can't shake the awful thought that, if only 14,729 citizens had voted for Peres instead of Netanyahu, then everything would have been different. It would be very easy to find 101 small reasons for the loss of so few votes: If only Peres had not authorized the assassination of "the Engineer," Hamas would not have carried out the bombings on the eve of the elections. If only artillery had not shelled the Kafr Kanah refugee camp in Lebanon, all of the Arab Israeli citizens would have mobilized for Peres, and none of them would have thrown in a blank ballot into the box instead. If only Labor had invoked the memory of Rabin, instead of hiding it on the eve of the elections...If only Haim Ramon were Yosi Beilin...if only person X had not said such-and-such...if only person Y had acted differently...

And so, instead of putting its house in order from the bottom up, instead of exchanging the entire upper echelon, instead of sweeping reforms, the party behaves like a cat chasing its own tail. If there is any party debate at all, it revolves around the question: How can it acquire 15,000 extra votes? And the conclusion: if we shift a little more toward the right, and a bit more toward the orthodox, then we will catch that tail any minute now.

Admittedly, here and there some cogent theoretical analysis was done (Shevah Weiss did a great job, only to be promptly forgotten), and effort was even made to take stock and draw the necessary conclusions -- but all ended with deafening silence.

The truth is that the Labor party did not lose by 15,000 floating votes. The party retained most of the Ashkenazi, secular and Arab votes. The party was defeated because a huge coalition of demographic sectors rose up against it: The entire religious-haredi camp, the vast majority of the Oriental population, the vast majority of the Russian immigrants, in addition to the settlers and the Right wing lunatic fringe.

Whoever attempts to win the next election must first take a substantial bite out of one of these sectors. Acquiring 15,000 accidental votes will not be enough. In order to carry out a peace policy, a much bigger majority is needed. With that goal in mind, Labor would have to formulate a new strategy and execute it consistently, without shifts to the right or the left.

Only a fool would believe that inroads can be made into the religious-haredi camp. Despite its lack of uniformity, it is a totalitarian camp, suffused with the ideology of the extreme Right, which is getting ever more extreme. Those fooled by the sweet smiles of the haredi missionaries can go and hang themselves on a strip of tefillin.

What remains are the other two sectors: The Oriental and the Russian immigrant sectors. Both are very tough nuts to crack. The conversion of a son or grandson of a Moroccan immigrant from his Likud religion to the Labor religion is as difficult a task as the crossing of the Red Sea. It is like switching a fan's loyalties from Betar Yerushalaim to Ha'Poel Yerushalaim. It would be easier to perform a sex-change operation. The Betar coach can prove to be an idiot, the players can lose ten to zero, the fans can scream to their hearts content, but they are not about to change the color of their shirts just for that. They "belong."

In order to win the hearts of the Oriental populace, Labor must carry out deep-seated reforms. It is not enough to take an Oriental activist and place him in a prominent position. Those days are gone. The problem needs to be addressed at its root: To formulate a plan for an economic and social revolution, which would be utterly different from the Likud concept, to make clear the connection between the economic and the peace messages, to heal the wounds of the spirit. Barak's asking the Oriebtal community for forgiveness was a small step in the right direction, but without the other necessary 101 steps, it has no value. All the above holds true for the Russian immigrant population too.

Against this backdrop, the utterances of MK Ori Orr against the Morrocans were a crime against his party. Orr's subsequent actions inspire amazement at his obstinacy and lack of understanding. But the inability of Ehud Barak to react promptly and perform adequate damage control is evidence of the mother of all of Labor's present problems: It is in fact Barak, a professional general, who is incapable of formulating a clear strategy and sticking to it come hell or high water.

And so the cat continues to chase its own tail. It is a funny spectacle, but entirely unamusing.