Like the person waiting for the upstairs neighbor to drop the other shoe, everyone is waiting for "The Explosion." It was supposed to happen last week.

Every person in the Palestinian territories believes nowadays that nothing will move without "The Explosion." Israeli experts share this belief. All are waiting for the bloodshed, like a farmer anticipating the autumn rain. The subject is discussed openly. No one knows when, how or where it will come. Nobody knows what will be the precise final straw which will break the camel's back. But everyone is certain that it will come -- in the next minute, in a month, at most in a year, with the declaration of the Palestinian State.

There was the same kind of anticipation of a revolt in the eighties, a revolt later known as the intifada. Then, too, no one knew precisely when, where or how. In the end it came as a result of an unintentional road accident near the Jabaliah refugee camp. 1,500 Palestinian dead, hundreds of Israeli dead. History.

In the current atmosphere, all it would take is the act of one foolish Israeli soldier or one determined Palestinian to precipitate a huge bloodletting. Last week it almost happened.

Abd-el-Aziz Shaheen, nicknamed "Abu Ali," does not look like a national hero. He is a refugee, a thin, bespectacled man, who looks more like a schoolmaster. But he is the man who founded the "Shabeebah," the Fatah youth movement which carried the intifada on its back.

During his administrative detention (he was in prison altogether for 17 years), a small group of Israelis and Palestinians, myself among them, demonstrated in front of his prison cell in the Gaza Strip. He was freed and expelled. Years later, during one of my visits in Tunis, I spent a few hours in his company. A riveting person, full of life and humor, incredibly sharp, and a real fighter.

Back then, after Oslo and before Arafat's return to Gaza, Shaheen was opposed to the Accords, which seemed to him like a Palestinian capitulation to an Israeli diktat. He criticized Arafat harshly. But when the Accords were signed, Shaheen understood that history was on that train and that one should be on board that train when it left the station. He came to Gaza and joined the process. In the elections to the Legislative Committee, he was the Fatah representative in the Southern Strip region, winning by a landslide. Arafat, who does not hold grudges, nominated him for the post of Minister of Supplies.

There are those Palestinians who are enjoying the privileges of senior posts in the government of a "state in the making." They have quickly adapted to a life of comfort after years of struggle, and generally they are willing to come to an understanding with the nearby occupation officers. Not Abu Ali. And so events developed as they did: A soldier blocked Minister Shaheen's way, and the latter insisted on his rights. The

soldier summoned reinforcements, Shaheen summoned reinforcements, the road was blocked and both sides drew their weapons. It would have taken one single bullet discharged by either side (and who could later determine which side was at fault?) to start "the explosion": dozens dead, hundreds wounded, and from that moment on, the war would have spread throughout the land and possibly throughout the region.

This time, miraculously, it was prevented. Tomorrow, a day after tomorrow, next month, it will not be prevented.

Lesson number one: The current situation is untenable. Only an utter fool would believe that this present state can be frozen indefinitely. No Palestinian can reconcile himself to a situation in which the Israeli army, in the service of a handful of settlers, blocks a vital artery in the heart of Palestinian territory. Every arbitrary act, such as this, of a continuing arrogant occupation which harasses the Palestinians daily in hundreds of different ways, has the potential to ignite the conflagration.

Lesson number two: The dozens of settlements scattered throughout the territories like landmines do not strengthen Israel's security. They weaken it. Each settlement is a potential hostage -- at any given time, the Palestinians can lay siege to it. On the other hand, each settlement can drag the Israeli army, and the entire country into a war against its will. This is why the "map of security interests", submitted by the army general staff to the Knesset, determined that there is no room for these settlements.

Lesson number three: President Ezer Weizman performed a national duty when he tore off the veil of deceit which conceals the truth. Netanyahu keeps repeating the same lie, as if it is the Palestinians who are violating the peace accords, while Netanyahu's government is sticking to its every detail. The President stated the simple truth: The Palestinians have accepted the U.S. plan, which is entirely based on Netanyahu's own demands, while Netanyahu has no intention whatsoever of accepting it. Were Weizman to help silence this fact (as do most of the media), he would have betrayed his duty and responsibility to hundreds of people of both peoples who will surely lose their lives in the impending "Explosion".

The Gush Katif incident is a warning. It may be the last one.